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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 4, 2018 5:22:24 GMT -6
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Post by sooner98 on Nov 5, 2018 10:18:26 GMT -6
Final generic ballot poll:
CNN: Democrats +13
Rasmussen: Republicans +1
Which of these do you believe?
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 5, 2018 11:08:43 GMT -6
Imagine if some Billy Bobs with shotguns posed with a Kemp sign. Can we just get the race war over with?  |
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Post by sooner98 on Nov 5, 2018 13:51:35 GMT -6
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Post by soonernvolved on Nov 5, 2018 21:13:59 GMT -6
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Post by oilsooner on Nov 6, 2018 8:45:55 GMT -6
Final generic ballot poll: CNN: Democrats +13 Rasmussen: Republicans +1 Which of these do you believe? At a minimum, it shows how inaccurate polls are. I mean, if we are supposed to take them at face value, how in the world can both of these results be true?? CNN has a clear financial motive to present a specific scenario or reality, regardless of truth, as their entire viability hinges on clicks and eyeballs, and a quick search shows that most folks believe CNN to cater to the left. mediabiasfactcheck.com/cnn/www.allsides.com/news-source/cnn-media-biaswww.businessinsider.com/most-biased-news-outlets-in-america-cnn-fox-nytimes-2018-8#5-cnn-27-5Does Rasmussen have a motive to skrew results to the right? Maybe, though I'd have to hear a good argument for it. Nate Silver is part and parcel of the problem listed above. Pretty shocking that the Dems were a shoo in to win the House just a few days ago, then all of the sudden its a toss up. Reminds me of the lead up to the election, where Hillary "wasnt focused on Trump" until she wondered "why arent I 50 points ahead." Then, all of the sudden ol' Nate Bronze be like:  |
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Post by hermit on Nov 6, 2018 9:04:50 GMT -6
I'm watching CNBC. They just ran an MSNBC ad for election coverage, billing it as " the vote for the future of America "
Good gawd, hyperbole much.
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Post by oilsooner on Nov 6, 2018 9:18:02 GMT -6
I'm watching CNBC. They just ran an MSNBC ad for election coverage, billing it as " the vote for the future of America " Good gawd, hyperbole much. So, this "journalist" in Michigan called the Pub to set up a post election innterview, left a message, thought she hung up, then proceeded to rip the pub (running against Debbie Stabnow) and say how it would be a disaster if the pub won. What a disgrace. www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-journalist-accidentally-says-f-ing-republican-john-james-and-victory-over-democrat-would-sThen there is this mess with ABC: www.foxnews.com/entertainment/abc-news-demonstrates-left-wing-bias-leading-up-to-midterms-critics-sayThe Left owns the MSM, and they normalize their regressive agenda. Its absolutely sickening at times, but I do think they've taken it so far that even the independents get it, and realize how destabilizing a media with an agenda is for any society. I think it drives people further left, because it legitimizes absurd left wing talking points, but its so blatant that even the indy's see the bias, which overall hurts the Dem party. What a mess for them. |
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Post by Boots on Nov 6, 2018 10:08:55 GMT -6
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Post by oilsooner on Nov 6, 2018 10:35:02 GMT -6
Thats pretty much what I have been seeing as well (on the more moderate sources like allsides). I still think the Dems will take the House, and that they will vote to impeach Trump. But, I hope beyond hope that we maintain both chambers. As your article says, turnout is going to be key. its been the most active early voting in recent memory for midterms, so I expect voting day turnout to be unusually high as well. The artcile does lean heavily on the YouGov poll (which I believe to be one of the more biased polls out there) to establish strength of voter identiry, so I am curious how that could skew the results of the dem/pub/indy identity calcluations which are pillar of their final conclusions. Lastly, they report more "pure" indy's as leaning more left this election, pushing the total Dem vote from 52 to 52.3 percent. This is a small (though very important) change, and I believe this information could be flawed, though they do appear to base it on a conensus of polls. This is the hinge factor that I think will show how accurate polling was, come a week from now once vote totals are clear. A month ago, I was certain the dems would take the House. Today, I think its likely, but a toss up depending on some key races (the opposite calculation than what your RCP article uses, I realize), but I think its an interesting shift. With everything the Dems allegedly have going for them, and how bad Trump alledgedly is, this is an absolute failure for the Dems to be unable to turn those narratives into large swings of power in their favor. The fact that its tight down to the wire is an epic fail for Dems, imo (and dont even get me started on the libertarian party...lol). |
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Post by 1tc on Nov 6, 2018 10:55:18 GMT -6
I'm typically voter 240-280 when voting in the afternoon. I was voter 421 at 10am today.
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Post by xingtherubicon on Nov 6, 2018 11:06:01 GMT -6
peaked at my wife's ballot this morning while we were next to each other in the booths...not pleased.
On the walk to our cars, she didn't seem to be listening at my explanation that she was my property.
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Post by sooner98 on Nov 6, 2018 11:31:58 GMT -6
Thats pretty much what I have been seeing as well (on the more moderate sources like allsides). I still think the Dems will take the House, and that they will vote to impeach Trump. But, I hope beyond hope that we maintain both chambers. As your article says, turnout is going to be key. its been the most active early voting in recent memory for midterms, so I expect voting day turnout to be unusually high as well. The artcile does lean heavily on the YouGov poll (which I believe to be one of the more biased polls out there) to establish strength of voter identiry, so I am curious how that could skew the results of the dem/pub/indy identity calcluations which are pillar of their final conclusions. Lastly, they report more "pure" indy's as leaning more left this election, pushing the total Dem vote from 52 to 52.3 percent. This is a small (though very important) change, and I believe this information could be flawed, though they do appear to base it on a conensus of polls. This is the hinge factor that I think will show how accurate polling was, come a week from now once vote totals are clear. A month ago, I was certain the dems would take the House. Today, I think its likely, but a toss up depending on some key races (the opposite calculation than what your RCP article uses, I realize), but I think its an interesting shift. With everything the Dems allegedly have going for them, and how bad Trump alledgedly is, this is an absolute failure for the Dems to be unable to turn those narratives into large swings of power in their favor. The fact that its tight down to the wire is an epic fail for Dems, imo (and dont even get me started on the libertarian party...lol). Pre-Kavanaugh, I would have said it was a sure thing that the Dems would have taken the House. Immediately post-Kavanaugh, I would have said that the Dems probably take the House, but it would be close. Today, after seeing how well the GOP is doing in early voting, I'd now put it at 50/50. I'd also say the GOP expands it's Senate lead to 54/46. EVERYBODY needs get out and vote, and keep our country from becoming North Venezuela!! |
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Post by sooner98 on Nov 6, 2018 11:34:09 GMT -6
peaked at my wife's ballot this morning while we were next to each other in the booths...not pleased. On the walk to our cars, she didn't seem to be listening at my explanation that she was my property. Tell her to do what she is told, and put on her handmaid's robe.  |
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Post by sooner98 on Nov 6, 2018 11:40:33 GMT -6
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Post by soonernvolved on Nov 6, 2018 12:14:10 GMT -6
www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/msm-has-gone-blue-wave-no-idea-whats-going-happenThe mainstream media, or MSM, has been furiously backpedaling on grand prognostications of Democrat victory in Tuesday's midterms. Talk in April of a "blue wave" ran out of steam mid-summer, with MSM pundits shifting tone to assure audiences that "well, Democrats will surely take the House." Now, they're not so sure about that either.  As Politico reports, CNN and other networks are determined not to be caught flat-footed like they were in 2016, warning their journalists and editors to prepare for any outcome.
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Post by stinger1066 on Nov 6, 2018 13:30:50 GMT -6
I'm hot for Amy Rohbach.
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 6, 2018 13:44:46 GMT -6
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 6, 2018 13:46:49 GMT -6
For you she's practically jail bait. |
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Post by soonernvolved on Nov 6, 2018 14:49:20 GMT -6
It is illegal in Pennsylvania for campaign materials to be distributed or displayed within 10 feet of a polling place entrance. No campaigning is permitted within the polling place.
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Post by heffalump on Nov 6, 2018 15:39:40 GMT -6
peaked at my wife's ballot this morning while we were next to each other in the booths...not pleased. On the walk to our cars, she didn't seem to be listening at my explanation that she was my property.
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Post by principledcon on Nov 6, 2018 15:49:03 GMT -6
Thats pretty much what I have been seeing as well (on the more moderate sources like allsides). I still think the Dems will take the House, and that they will vote to impeach Trump. But, I hope beyond hope that we maintain both chambers. As your article says, turnout is going to be key. its been the most active early voting in recent memory for midterms, so I expect voting day turnout to be unusually high as well. The artcile does lean heavily on the YouGov poll (which I believe to be one of the more biased polls out there) to establish strength of voter identiry, so I am curious how that could skew the results of the dem/pub/indy identity calcluations which are pillar of their final conclusions. Lastly, they report more "pure" indy's as leaning more left this election, pushing the total Dem vote from 52 to 52.3 percent. This is a small (though very important) change, and I believe this information could be flawed, though they do appear to base it on a conensus of polls. This is the hinge factor that I think will show how accurate polling was, come a week from now once vote totals are clear. A month ago, I was certain the dems would take the House. Today, I think its likely, but a toss up depending on some key races (the opposite calculation than what your RCP article uses, I realize), but I think its an interesting shift. With everything the Dems allegedly have going for them, and how bad Trump alledgedly is, this is an absolute failure for the Dems to be unable to turn those narratives into large swings of power in their favor. The fact that its tight down to the wire is an epic fail for Dems, imo (and dont even get me started on the libertarian party...lol). Pre-Kavanaugh, I would have said it was a sure thing that the Dems would have taken the House. Immediately post-Kavanaugh, I would have said that the Dems probably take the House, but it would be close. Today, after seeing how well the GOP is doing in early voting, I'd now put it at 50/50. I'd also say the GOP expands it's Senate lead to 54/46. EVERYBODY needs get out and vote, and keep our country from becoming North Venezuela!! There are millions of delusional folks that will continue to vote for the radical anti-American Dems....elections won't solve that |
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Post by principledcon on Nov 6, 2018 15:53:17 GMT -6
What is this country really like if millions will vote for Gillum? Really F'd up... |
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Post by xingtherubicon on Nov 6, 2018 16:07:03 GMT -6
Unpossible....538 has Gillium up by over 4 points and a 77% chance to win 538 also has the FL Senate dem that looks like a lego villian winning as well |
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 6, 2018 16:18:31 GMT -6
Look. An election day guest troll. Who saw that one coming?
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 6, 2018 16:26:20 GMT -6
Juan Williams is doing everything but masturbating on the set.
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Post by oilsooner on Nov 6, 2018 16:37:36 GMT -6
Juan Williams is doing everything but masturbating on the set. Lol, I was watching the Five for a bit. Juan Williams is off his rocker. I dont know how that guy goes to work every day though, so it must be torture to be him. lolol |
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Post by soonernvolved on Nov 6, 2018 16:52:14 GMT -6
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Post by kcrufnek on Nov 6, 2018 18:42:26 GMT -6
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Post by hermit on Nov 6, 2018 18:51:05 GMT -6
Well shit, but what's he gonna win unless they run him for pres .
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